The ANC is hitching a ride on former president Thabo Mbeki’s popularity, hoping to boost the party’s dwindling electoral fortunes in the run-up to the 29 May national and provincial elections, say experts.
Mbeki and President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is the face of the ANC campaign, have been the most visible leaders.
Mbeki on the ANC campaign trail
Mbeki campaigned in KwaZulu-Natal, the heartland of former president Jacob Zuma’s opposition uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, at the weekend after touring Gauteng.
KZN is an exacting battleground, and the ANC is pulling out all the stops there against competition from the MK party and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), which has an agreement to form a post-election coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA).
In that case, the only option for the ANC would be to cajole Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) to cobble together a partnership to defeat the IFP-DA coalition and the MK. But Malema cannot be trusted because he has hinted about joining forces with the MK.
The DA, IFP and other Multi-Party Charter for South Africa members are remaining in principled opposition to forming a partnership with the MK, ANC or EFF.
Mbeki will have to help the ANC retain KZN and Gauteng, where the ruling party has been under the constant threat of being toppled by a DA-led coalition.
Mbeki’s popularity
Political analyst Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast said a recent scientific survey which confirmed Mbeki was the most popular leader was the reason the ANC had engaged him in its campaign.
“The ANC is using him to… solicit the votes the party so desperately needs,” he said. “Under Mbeki, a lot went well, except his HIV-Aids policy.”
He said Mbeki might have joined the ANC campaign after realizing SA was on a steep decline politically and economically.
“For sure, he felt that as a veteran he must step up to the plate because Jacob Zuma wants to continue to destroy the ANC and the country. Mbeki is intervening to stop Zuma,” Breakfast said. “He agreed to campaign, but he is not giving the ANC a blank cheque. He still insisted on his demand that the party must address certain things he was unhappy about, including corruption.”
MK party the ‘final straw’ for Mbeki
Political science professor Dirk Kotzé said Mbeki was drawn to the campaign after Zuma started attacking the ANC using an opposition party, the MK.
“Seeing that Zuma was in MK was the final straw for Mbeki. He is expressing his resentment towards Zuma as part of his ANC campaign strategy.
“The second element is that in opinion polls, he is quite popular as one of the political leaders or statesmen in South Africa. I think the ANC sees an opportunity to use that popularity for its benefit.
“Mbeki also realized the ANC is in dire straits and needed everyone on board. By participating in this campaign, he wants to demonstrate this is a different ANC, a post-Zuma ANC, and he feels more comfortable to work in it,” Kotzé said.
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