Desperation, History And Pressure: Why South Africa Should Fear Zimbabwe In Final AFCON Match

Why South Africa Should Be Worried About Facing Zimbabwe In Crucial Match

As the 2025 TotalEnergies CAF Africa Cup of Nations group stage reaches its decisive moment, South Africa’s final Group B clash against Zimbabwe in Marrakesh is being framed by many as a formality. On paper, Bafana Bafana only need a draw to progress. Zimbabwe, by contrast, must win to keep their tournament alive.

However, history, form, psychology and tournament dynamics all suggest this is precisely the kind of match South Africa should fear. When pressure collides with desperation, African football has a habit of punishing complacency.

A Rivalry That Refuses To Follow The Script

Although this will be the first meeting between Zimbabwe and South Africa at the AFCON finals, the rivalry itself is anything but new. The two sides have faced each other 19 times before this tournament, with South Africa edging the head-to-head record: eight wins to Zimbabwe’s six, alongside five draws.

Yet, numbers alone conceal an uncomfortable truth for South Africa. Zimbabwe have repeatedly proven capable of frustrating, stalling and psychologically unsettling their neighbours. Most recently, on 10 October 2025, the Warriors forced a 0–0 draw in a 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifier played in Durban. That match saw South Africa dominate possession and chances, only to be denied repeatedly by Washington Arubi and a resilient Zimbabwean backline.

That result mattered. It delayed South Africa’s World Cup qualification and reinforced a familiar pattern: Zimbabwe may not always win, but they often deny South Africa momentum when it matters most.

Tournament Pressure Changes Everything

Group B’s dynamics heighten the tension. Egypt have already secured top spot after beating both Zimbabwe and South Africa, including a controversial 1–0 win over Bafana on 26 December 2025. Mohamed Salah’s penalty ensured Egypt’s qualification, leaving South Africa vulnerable to the fine margins of AFCON’s tie-breaker rules.

Zimbabwe sit bottom of the group with one point, following a narrow 2–1 loss to Egypt on 22 December and a hard-fought 1–1 draw with Angola on 27 December. However, a single victory over South Africa would dramatically reshape the table and potentially propel the Warriors into the round of 16 for the first time in their AFCON history.

In contrast, South Africa face the burden of expectation. A draw is enough, but AFCON history repeatedly shows that teams playing for a draw often pay the ultimate price.

The Warriors’ Matchday Three Curse — And Blessing

Zimbabwe’s AFCON record reveals an intriguing trend. All three of their AFCON victories have come on matchday three: against Algeria in 2004, Ghana in 2006, and Guinea in 2021. Conversely, they have never won either of their opening two group games at the finals.

This pattern matters. According to CAF statistics, Zimbabwe’s record in third group matches stands at three wins from five. More importantly, these wins often arrive when expectations are lowest and pressure is highest.

South Africa, meanwhile, have not won their final group match at AFCON since 2002. In their last seven tournaments, they are winless in matchday three fixtures, drawing four and losing three. That psychological scar should concern coach Hugo Broos and his technical team.

Knowledge Musona: Experience Still Matters

At the heart of Zimbabwe’s belief stands Knowledge Musona. Now 35, the former Kaizer Chiefs and Anderlecht forward remains the Warriors’ emotional and tactical leader. His equaliser against Angola made him Zimbabwe’s oldest AFCON goalscorer and only the second player, alongside the late Peter Ndlovu, to score three AFCON goals for the nation.

Musona’s influence goes beyond goals. Against Angola, he attempted five shots, underlining his willingness to shoulder responsibility. A goal against South Africa would see him surpass both Shaun Bartlett and Ndlovu as the highest scorer in this fixture.

In tournament football, such experience can outweigh youthful energy, especially in moments of chaos and fatigue.

South Africa’s Control Has Not Converted Into Comfort

Statistically, South Africa have impressed in patches. Against Egypt, they recorded 63.8% possession, their highest at AFCON since 2013. Teboho Mokoena completed 72 passes at a 90% success rate, while Aubrey Modiba registered 94 touches.

Yet, dominance has not translated into goals. South Africa have failed to score in their final group match at the last two AFCON tournaments, and they have won just one of their last five AFCON matches in open play.

As Daily Maverick reports, Hugo Broos himself admitted frustration after the Egypt defeat, urging his players to “forget” the result and refocus. However, emotional carryover is difficult to erase in such a compressed tournament.

Zimbabwe’s Defensive Blow — And The Hidden Opportunity

The Warriors will be without Teenage Hadebe, ruled out on 29 December 2025 after sustaining an injury against Angola. According to The Herald, Hadebe described his absence as “heartbreaking.”

At first glance, this appears a decisive blow. However, Zimbabwe have already shown an ability to reorganise defensively under pressure. Washington Arubi, now 40, continues to deliver commanding performances, frustrating elite forwards with calm authority.

Sometimes, adversity sharpens collective resolve. Zimbabwe will not arrive in Marrakesh believing they are beaten.

Why South Africa Should Truly Be Worried

This match is not about form alone. It is about psychology, stakes and timing. Zimbabwe arrive with nothing to lose and everything to gain. South Africa arrive knowing that a single mistake could undo months of progress.

AFCON history is ruthless to teams that play not to lose. If Zimbabwe score first, panic will spread. If the match remains goalless deep into the second half, tension will suffocate South Africa’s fluidity.

That is why Bafana Bafana should be worried. Not because Zimbabwe are favourites — but because they are dangerous when desperate.