Top Economist Fires Back At Mthuli Ncube’s Claims That Majority of Zimbabweans Are Now Upper Middle Income

Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube has declared that the majority of Zimbabweans have entered the upper middle income bracket, but a leading economist is firing back with a starkly different picture of the nation’s economic health. Professor Gift Mugano, an outspoken economist, has taken to social media to challenge the minister’s claims, citing a series of grim statistics from the official data agency, ZimStat.

The dispute centres on comments made by Ncube at a pre-budget seminar in Bulawayo last week. The Minister stated that the economy was on course to achieve upper-middle-income status by 2030. Ncube pointed to the country’s gross national income (GNI) per capita.

“So, the minimum GNI [gross national income] per capita should be US$4 500 (approx. R84,000) per person and this is an annual figure. That means that you ought to be able to spend on any given day no less than US$12 (approx. R225) per person. Currently, with the GNI per capita of US$3 300 (approx. R62,000), that implies that we are spending US$9 (approx. R170) per day,” Ncube said.

A Reality Check From An Economist

Professor Gift Mugano responded directly to these claims in a post on X. He expressed disbelief and laid out a series of counterpoints drawn from official data, painting a picture of an economy in deep distress, not one on the verge of upper-middle-income status.

“I am sure that my good brother is not aware of the following facts from ZimStat,” Mugano began his thread. He then listed several key issues, starting with poverty levels. “Close to 50% of the population is in extreme poverty,” he stated.

The professor also highlighted a severe unemployment crisis, particularly among the youth. He noted that the informal sector dominates the employment landscape, which suggests a lack of stable, formal jobs.

“Informal jobs are sitting at 87.7% which means that jobs created in the formal sector are sitting at 12.3% – put simply we have 87.7% formal unemployment,” Mugano wrote.

Social Services And Fiscal Pressures

Mugano’s rebuttal extended beyond employment and poverty to address the state of the nation’s critical social services and the government’s own financial health. He suggested that these sectors would not be struggling if the population were truly becoming more affluent.

“Both hospitals and education sector, our critical social sectors are in intensive care,” he stated bluntly.

He also pointed to significant challenges within the government’s treasury, indicating that the fiscal reality does not support the minister’s optimistic income claims. Mugano warned of potential instability if these pressures are not managed.

“Treasury is facing tight fiscal space and massive fiscal pressures which if not reined through cash budgeting – ‘we eat what we kill mantra,’ will destabilize currency stability as well as the financial markets,” he wrote.

In his concluding remarks, Professor Mugano emphasised the importance of factual messaging for effective policy-making. He expressed a shared desire for the country to progress but insisted that this goal cannot be achieved through misleading statements.

“Our desire yes is to get to the upper middle income status. We have to work harder as team Zimbabwe. What is certain is that we can’t get there through propaganda,” he stated. “In this journey, right messaging and facts is important so that critical stakeholders in the ecosystem of policy making and policy implementation are inspired and motivated and not discouraged or dampened by lies.”

Neither Mthuli Ncube nor the Ministry of Finance had responded to Professor Mugano’s assertions at the time of publishing.