South African motorists could soon enjoy lower fuel costs, particularly those filling up with diesel.
The latest fuel price data points to substantial diesel reductions in November. Petrol prices could also decline, although motorists may see smaller savings.
Figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), released on Thursday, 29 October, reveal under-recoveries across all four major fuel grades.
However, government intervention has significantly changed the expected November adjustments.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana recently announced temporary fuel levy cuts. The measures form part of a R10 billion relief package.
The government will reduce the general fuel levy by R1.50 per litre for petrol. Diesel will receive a larger R3 reduction per litre.
How much could motorists save in November?
The latest CEF figures show petrol 93 recording an under-recovery of R1.17 per litre. Petrol 95 stands at R1.01 per litre.
Meanwhile, diesel 0.05% has an under-recovery of R1.42 per litre. Diesel 0.005% follows closely at R1.32 per litre.
These figures suggest diesel motorists could enjoy the biggest relief.
Based on the latest calculations, the indicative inland fuel prices could change as follows:
| Fuel type | October price | November projection | Levy reduction | Potential change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R29.88 | R31.05 | R1.50 | -33c/l |
| Petrol 95 | R30.25 | R31.26 | R1.50 | -49c/l |
| Diesel 0.05% | R31.95 | R33.37 | R3.00 | -R1.58/l |
| Diesel 0.005% | R33.29 | R34.61 | R3.00 | -R1.68/l |
The projections indicate potential diesel savings of R1.58 and R1.68 per litre.
Petrol motorists could also benefit, with projected reductions of 33 and 49 cents per litre.
However, these estimates do not represent confirmed pump prices. International oil prices and currency movements could still change the final adjustments.
Rising oil prices threaten November fuel savings
Despite the encouraging projections, motorists should not celebrate just yet.
International oil prices have recently climbed amid renewed tensions in the Middle East.
Brent crude traded around $115 per barrel during the week. Meanwhile, the rand hovered around R16.50 against the US dollar.
These developments could undermine the expected fuel price reductions.
South Africa relies heavily on international petroleum markets. Consequently, higher oil prices increase the cost of importing fuel.
A weaker rand could also make petroleum imports more expensive. Further increases could therefore reduce the expected savings.
The new fuel prices are scheduled to take effect at midnight on Tuesday, 3 November.
The timing comes just before South Africa’s Local Government Elections.
Two major factors determine South Africa’s fuel prices:
- International petroleum prices: Global oil prices influence the cost of importing refined petroleum products.
- The rand-dollar exchange rate: A weaker rand increases the local cost of purchasing petroleum products.
At the time of publication, Brent crude traded at $112.68 per barrel. The rand-dollar exchange rate stood at R16.64/$.
Motorists will therefore need to wait for the official announcement before confirming November’s savings.
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