Zimbabwe Bakers Warn Of Bread Price Possible Rise To Over US$1

The National Bakers Association of Zimbabwe (NBAZ) has issued a stark warning, saying a proposed increase in flour costs could push bread prices above US$1 for the first time, placing immense strain on household budgets already stretched to the limit. This potential increase is directly linked to a new proposal from the Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe (GMAZ) to raise bread flour prices by 4%.

In a formal communiqué to the Minister of Industry and Commerce, Mangaliso Ndlovu, the NBAZ detailed the unsustainable pressure this would place on the industry. The association’s president, Elvis Ncube, explained that flour is the single most significant cost in bread production, accounting for nearly half of total expenses. He stated,

“The sector does not have the capacity to absorb any further increases in input costs without compromising business viability.” Ncube provided a precise breakdown, noting, “If a four percent increase in bread flour is permitted, it will translate to a two-cent rise per loaf, effective the same day the flour price goes up.”

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Zimbabwe Bakers Warn Of Bread Price Possible Rise Past US$1

The bakers’ plea shows that this is not the first cost increase they have faced. Since the start of 2024, the industry has been grappling with a cascade of financial pressures. A significant blow came from a government tax reclassification, which shifted bread from a zero-rated to a tax-exempt status under VAT rules.

This technical change stripped bakers of their ability to claim back VAT on essential inputs, severely eroding their already slim profit margins. Compounding this have been steady rises in the cost of fuel, electricity, packaging, and distribution.

Despite this onslaught of rising operational costs, bakers have heroically held the line on price. Elvis Ncube emphasised this point, revealing that the wholesale price of bread has remained stable for the better part of two years, throughout 2024 and 2025. However, the latest flour price proposal represents the final straw. The association warns that it would trigger an inevitable pass-through effect to consumers, with a projected five-cent increase at the retail level. This would almost certainly push the price of a loaf beyond the US$1 threshold, with a potential implementation date as early as November 2025.

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A Plea to Avert a National Crisis

With bread standing as the second most critical food item in the country after the maize meal used for sadza (thick porridge), this potential price hike is far more than a mere statistic. It threatens to deepen the cost-of-living crisis for millions of urban families who rely on it as a daily staple. The NBAZ is now making a final, urgent appeal for government intervention to prevent what it sees as an unavoidable disaster for both consumers and the baking industry’s stability.